BTC ETF 30D Net Flow
What is BTC ETF 30D Net Flow
BTC ETF 30D Net Flow measures how many BTC the US spot Bitcoin ETFs have net bought (or sold) over the past 30 days. A positive value means net buying; a negative value means net selling.
Since the US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, they have become one of the largest sources of BTC demand. When investors subscribe to an ETF, the issuer buys the same amount of BTC on the market and places it in custody; when investors redeem, the issuer sells BTC. CoinKarma converts each ETF's daily net flow into BTC at that day's closing price, then sums the past 30 days.
Why count in BTC, not USD
The same $3B inflow buys 60,000 BTC when BTC trades at $50,000, but only 27,000 BTC at $110,000. The coin count is the supply ETFs actually take off the market, and it stays comparable across different price levels. For reference, after the 2024 halving miners produce roughly 13,500 new BTC per month, so a 30-day net inflow of 60,000 BTC is more than four times new issuance.
Why 30 days
Daily ETF flows swing widely. A large inflow followed by a large outflow the next day is common, and part of that flow comes from arbitrage positions (see BTC ETF Net Flow). Summing 30 days shows whether capital is steadily coming in or steadily leaving.
BTC ETF Net Flow
Daily net flow
Read short-term sentiment and arbitrage activity
BTC ETF 30D Net Flow
30-day cumulative flow in BTC
Judge whether a rally is an ETF-driven main uptrend
How to use BTC ETF 30D Net Flow
The histogram shows the 30-day net flow in BTC (60K means 60,000 BTC), in three states:
Strong inflow (green)
30D ≥ 60K BTC
ETFs are buying heavily; the market is usually in a main uptrend
Neutral (gray)
Between −20K and 60K
No clear direction in ETF flows; common in ranging markets
Sustained outflow (red)
30D ≤ −20K BTC
ETF capital is leaving; price is usually in a downtrend
On green or red days, both the price candles and the sub-pane are tinted. The 60K and −20K thresholds sit at roughly the 85th and 15th percentiles of the series since February 2024, and both can be adjusted in the indicator settings (Inflow benchmark, Outflow benchmark).
Historical Review
The data runs from 2024-02-10 to 2026-09-18, 952 days in total. Green covers only 15% of them (145 days):
Of the 40 days BTC closed at an all-time high, 35 fell in green periods
Across the 145 green days, BTC gained 83% cumulatively; across the 154 red days, it lost 40%
Even acting only once the value appears (two days after the date shown on the chart), green periods still gained 77% and red periods lost 37%
● Green: hold the trend, don't short against it
In late October 2024, 30D broke above 60K and BTC rallied from $67K to $106K, with the green tint almost exactly covering the move. When 30D falls back below 60K, the buying behind the main uptrend is fading, and it is time to start tightening take-profits. In the 60 days after each of the five green periods ended, BTC gained at most another 2% to 11%.
● Lower flow peaks with each wave: green is no longer a reason to add
The 30D peaks of the five green periods were 151K, 125K, 86K, 75K and 67K. In 2025, price made new highs in May, July and October while each ETF flow peak came in lower. At the last new high in October, 30D stayed green for only 4 days, and BTC then fell as much as 30% over the next two months.
● Red: no added leverage, no rushing to buy the dip
All four sustained outflows occurred during downtrends. In three of them, BTC rebounded 19% to 28% within two months after the outflow ended; after the December 2025 outflow, it rebounded only 7% and then fell another 30% in February 2026. A move back above −20K means selling pressure is easing, but the end of an outflow is not a bottom, so confirm with other indicators.
● Pair with ILI to see whether institutional capital is fully in
Spot ETF flow is one of ILI's three channels. ETF green while ILI is in its abundant zone means institutional capital is coming in across the board; both main uptrends in 2024 and May 2025 showed this combination. ETF green while ILI has already diverged means only ETFs are holding the market up; the October 2025 top showed this combination.
Conclusion: Limitations of BTC ETF 30D Net Flow
BTC ETF 30D Net Flow confirms the nature of a move; it is not an early entry signal. A 30-day sum takes time to build, so by the time it crosses 60K, price has often already run. In April 2025, BTC started rallying from $76K and had already gained 36% by the time 30D crossed 60K on May 11.
Short sample: US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched only in January 2024, so the data covers a single bull-bear cycle and the thresholds need more cycles to validate
ETFs are not the only buyers: all 5 all-time highs outside green periods came in 2025, so watching ETFs alone underestimates rallies driven by other buyers such as corporate treasuries
Daily updates with a two-day lag: ETF flows are published after the US market close, so Monday's value appears on the chart by Wednesday (UTC); not suited to short-term trading
For entry timing, pair it with the LIQ series or ARI; for spotting tops, pair it with ILI.
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